Introduction -- Part I: Getting a grip on reality. Decisions, decisions, decisions ; Instruments and reality ; Making things happen -- Part II: Understanding and uncertainty. A radical shift to probabilistic thinking ; Overconfidence and humility ; Finding signal in noise ; Seeing things that aren't there ; Pick your poison: Two kinds of error ; Statistical and systematic uncertainty -- Part III: The radical can-do stance. Scientific optimism ; Orders of understanding and Fermi problems -- Part IV: Minding the gaps. Why it's hard to learn from experience ; Science gone wrong ; Confirmation bias and blind analysis -- Part V: Joining forces. The wisdom and madness of crowds ; Weaving facts and values ; The deliberation challenge ; Rebooting trust for a new millennium.